Can we predict Alzheimer’s years in advance?
New research has demonstrated that a simple blood test can predict when Alzheimer’s symptoms may begin, offering a powerful new tool to accelerate prevention trials and move medicine closer to earlier, more personalized interventions.
Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in Saint Louis (WashU; MO, USA) are the brains behind this transformational research. Published in Nature Medicine, the study describes a model that predicts symptom onset within 3–4 years by measuring the p-tau217 protein. The findings could potentially reshape prevention research, as well as identify individuals that may benefit from early intervention.
Dementia affects more than 55 million people worldwide, with 60–70% of cases attributed to Alzheimer’s. With no available cure, early detection is critical to slowing or preventing decline and maintaining quality of life.
The team, led by neurologist Suzanne E Schindler, Associate Professor in the WashU Medicine Department of Neurology, focused on p-tau217 levels in blood plasma, which have been long-linked to amyloid and tau accumulation and brain alterations observed in Alzheimer’s.
“It turns out that amyloid and tau also accumulate in a consistent pattern and the age they become positive strongly predicts when someone is going to develop Alzheimer’s symptoms. We found this is also true of plasma p-tau217, which reflects both amyloid and tau levels,” explained Kellen K Petersen, a neurology instructor at WashU.
Data from 603 cognitively healthy older adults were analyzed using PrecivityAD2, a clinically available diagnostic blood test for Alzheimer’s, among other blood tests. These participants were recruited through the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, across multiple US sites.
The team discovered that the age at which p-tau217 levels become elevated strongly predicts when symptoms will develop. Notably, age influenced timing: a 60-year-old with elevated levels might develop symptoms two decades later, while an 80-year-old could see changes within 11 years. This suggests that younger brains could be more resistant to neurodegeneration and Alzheimer’s pathology.
You may also be interested in:
- Novel blood testing technology for Alzheimer’s Bio-Hermes-002 study
- Two new p-tau assays launched to advance Alzheimer’s research
- New blood test technology accelerates drug detection in critical situations
Impressively, the predictive models consistently estimated onset within a 3–4 year margin of error. Researchers also confirmed the approach worked across multiple blood-testing platforms other than PrecivityAD2.
“These clock models could make clinical trials more efficient by identifying individuals who are likely to develop symptoms within a certain period of time. With further refinement, these methodologies have the potential to predict symptom onset accurately enough that we could use it in individual clinical care,” Petersen commented.
While not yet recommended for routine screening in health individuals, the findings could streamline clinical trials by identifying participants most likely to develop symptoms within a set timeframe. Future studies aim to refine accuracy by combining additional biomarkers, moving closer to personalized forecasts, and ultimately prevention.
